Bundesliga — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:01 UTC · home advantage ×1.52 · rho -0.040

Model performance this season

Based on 30 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.515 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	5	18.4%	0.0%	-18.4%
20%-40%	15	24.0%	26.7%	+2.6%
40%-60%	7	51.5%	42.9%	-8.6%
60%-80%	3	62.4%	100.0%	+37.6%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln	Model favoured: VfB Stuttgart (63%)
FC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04	Model favoured: FC Augsburg (58%)
SC Freiburg 4-1 SV Werder Bremen	Model favoured: SC Freiburg (52%)
Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV	Model favoured: Borussia Dortmund (62%)
RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach	Model favoured: RB Leipzig (51%)
1. FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07	Model favoured: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (60%)
1. FC Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt	Model favoured: 1. FC Union Berlin (48%)
SV 07 Elversberg 3-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen	Model favoured: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (52%)
1. FC Köln 3-2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	Model favoured: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (41%)
FC Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart	Model favoured: FC Bayern München (62%)

Upcoming fixtures

SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SV Werder Bremen	34.1%	2.93	4.40 (Smarkets)
Draw	23.7%	4.22	4.30 (Smarkets)
RB Leipzig	42.2%	2.37	1.83 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.2%
Under	35.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.6%
No	34.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
1-1	10.4%
1-2	8.7%
2-1	7.8%
2-2	6.8%
0-1	6.0%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	40.4%	2.47	2.76 (Smarkets)
Draw	23.7%	4.21	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Borussia Dortmund	35.8%	2.79	2.56 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.3%
Under	35.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.8%
No	34.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
1-1	10.4%
2-1	8.5%
1-2	8.0%
2-2	6.8%
1-0	5.8%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	63.1%	1.58	1.48 (Betfair)
Draw	18.3%	5.47	5.20 (Smarkets)
1. FC Union Berlin	18.6%	5.38	7.20 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	75.5%
Under	24.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	69.3%
No	30.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 36% of total probability)
2-1	8.8%
3-1	7.5%
1-1	7.1%
2-0	6.4%
2-2	6.0%

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV 07 Elversberg

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Borussia Mönchengladbach	46.1%	2.17	1.96 (Betfair)
Draw	22.7%	4.40	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
SV 07 Elversberg	31.1%	3.21	4.00 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	67.4%
Under	32.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.6%
No	32.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
1-1	9.6%
2-1	8.9%
1-2	7.2%
2-2	6.9%
2-0	5.7%

SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SC Paderborn 07	51.1%	1.96	3.90 (Smarkets)
Draw	23.9%	4.19	3.85 (Betfair)
SC Freiburg	25.0%	3.99	2.06 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.3%
Under	41.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.2%
No	40.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
1-1	11.1%
2-1	9.7%
1-0	8.4%
2-0	8.0%
1-2	6.5%

FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern München

2026-09-05 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Schalke 04	23.8%	4.20	18.00 (Matchbook)
Draw	20.1%	4.97	10.00 (Smarkets)
FC Bayern München	56.1%	1.78	1.18 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	73.8%
Under	26.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	70.6%
No	29.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 36% of total probability)
1-2	8.8%
1-1	7.8%
1-3	6.9%
2-2	6.6%
0-2	5.9%

Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

2026-09-06 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Hamburger SV	44.6%	2.24	2.98 (Smarkets)
Draw	26.5%	3.77	3.75 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1. FSV Mainz 05	28.9%	3.46	2.52 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.9%
Under	50.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.0%
No	46.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	12.6%
1-0	9.9%
2-1	9.1%
2-0	7.8%
0-1	7.6%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg

2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Eintracht Frankfurt	51.2%	1.95	2.04 (Smarkets)
Draw	21.7%	4.60	4.20 (Smarkets)
FC Augsburg	27.1%	3.69	3.60 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	69.6%
Under	30.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	68.4%
No	31.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
2-1	9.0%
1-1	9.0%
2-2	6.8%
1-2	6.5%
3-1	6.3%

1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

2026-09-11 18:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
1. FC Union Berlin	62.6%	1.60	2.10 (Coral)
Draw	19.1%	5.22	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
FC Schalke 04	18.2%	5.49	3.45 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	70.9%
Under	29.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.4%
No	34.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
2-1	9.3%
1-1	8.0%
3-1	7.5%
2-0	7.4%
3-0	6.0%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	49.1%	2.04	2.38 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	20.5%	4.89	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
VfB Stuttgart	30.5%	3.28	2.85 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	77.5%
Under	22.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	75.3%
No	24.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 34% of total probability)
2-1	7.9%
1-1	7.2%
2-2	7.1%
1-2	6.2%
3-1	6.0%

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Borussia Dortmund	57.3%	1.75	1.25 (888sport)
Draw	24.0%	4.17	7.00 (Coral)
SC Paderborn 07	18.7%	5.34	12.00 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.6%
Under	49.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	50.4%
No	49.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-0	11.5%
1-1	11.4%
2-0	10.7%
2-1	9.8%
0-0	7.2%

FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Augsburg	50.4%	1.98	4.50 (Grosvenor)
Draw	22.2%	4.51	4.33 (Betfred (UK))
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	27.4%	3.65	1.86 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	67.7%
Under	32.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.1%
No	32.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
1-1	9.4%
2-1	9.2%
2-2	6.7%
1-2	6.6%
2-0	6.3%

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
1. FSV Mainz 05	52.2%	1.91	2.15 (Coral)
Draw	22.9%	4.37	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Eintracht Frankfurt	24.9%	4.02	3.65 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.3%
Under	37.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.2%
No	37.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	7.5%
1-0	7.4%
1-2	6.4%

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SC Freiburg	61.9%	1.61	1.91 (Coral)
Draw	19.8%	5.05	3.85 (Grosvenor)
Borussia Mönchengladbach	18.3%	5.47	4.00 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	68.0%
Under	32.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.1%
No	36.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
2-1	9.6%
1-1	8.6%
2-0	8.0%
3-1	7.4%
1-0	6.6%

1. FC Köln vs SV Werder Bremen

2026-09-12 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
1. FC Köln	56.4%	1.77	2.15 (Coral)
Draw	20.6%	4.85	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
SV Werder Bremen	23.0%	4.35	3.30 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	70.6%
Under	29.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.7%
No	32.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
2-1	9.2%
1-1	8.5%
3-1	6.9%
2-0	6.6%
2-2	6.4%

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

2026-09-13 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RB Leipzig	67.2%	1.49	1.37 (Unibet (UK))
Draw	18.6%	5.36	5.50 (Betfred (UK))
Hamburger SV	14.1%	7.07	8.00 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	65.3%
Under	34.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.7%
No	42.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
2-1	9.7%
2-0	9.6%
1-1	8.5%
1-0	7.9%
3-1	7.6%

SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern München

2026-09-13 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SV 07 Elversberg	36.2%	2.76	15.00 (William Hill)
Draw	20.5%	4.88	8.00 (Betfred (UK))
FC Bayern München	43.3%	2.31	1.22 (Ladbrokes)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	79.5%
Under	20.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	77.6%
No	22.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 33% of total probability)
2-2	7.2%
1-2	7.2%
1-1	6.7%
2-1	6.5%
2-3	5.4%

FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin

2026-09-18 18:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Bayern München	79.0%	1.27	—
Draw	11.9%	8.40	—
1. FC Union Berlin	9.1%	10.99	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	84.2%
Under	15.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	68.0%
No	32.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 34% of total probability)
3-1	7.9%
2-1	6.9%
4-1	6.8%
3-0	6.5%
2-0	5.7%

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

2026-09-19 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Hamburger SV	54.7%	1.83	—
Draw	21.8%	4.59	—
1. FC Köln	23.5%	4.25	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	66.0%
Under	34.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	64.4%
No	35.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
2-1	9.5%
1-1	9.5%
2-0	7.3%
3-1	6.6%
1-0	6.6%

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

2026-09-19 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Borussia Mönchengladbach	46.2%	2.16	—
Draw	26.0%	3.85	—
1. FSV Mainz 05	27.8%	3.60	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.4%
Under	48.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.9%
No	45.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	12.4%
1-0	9.8%
2-1	9.3%
2-0	8.0%
0-1	7.1%

SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg

2026-09-19 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SV Werder Bremen	40.3%	2.48	—
Draw	24.2%	4.13	—
FC Augsburg	35.5%	2.82	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.1%
Under	37.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	64.1%
No	35.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
1-1	10.8%
2-1	8.6%
1-2	8.0%
2-2	6.7%
1-0	6.3%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg

2026-09-19 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Eintracht Frankfurt	51.1%	1.96	—
Draw	20.7%	4.83	—
SC Freiburg	28.2%	3.54	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	75.0%
Under	25.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	72.9%
No	27.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 36% of total probability)
2-1	8.4%
1-1	7.7%
2-2	7.0%
3-1	6.3%
1-2	6.2%

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

2026-09-19 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
VfB Stuttgart	47.3%	2.11	—
Draw	22.6%	4.42	—
Borussia Dortmund	30.1%	3.32	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	67.5%
Under	32.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.6%
No	32.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
1-1	9.6%
2-1	9.0%
1-2	7.0%
2-2	6.9%
2-0	5.9%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

2026-09-20 13:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	50.6%	1.98	—
Draw	21.8%	4.59	—
RB Leipzig	27.6%	3.62	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	69.7%
Under	30.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	68.6%
No	31.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
2-1	9.0%
1-1	9.0%
2-2	6.8%
1-2	6.5%
3-1	6.3%

FC Schalke 04 vs SV 07 Elversberg

2026-09-20 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Schalke 04	41.1%	2.44	—
Draw	22.5%	4.44	—
SV 07 Elversberg	36.4%	2.75	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	70.0%
Under	30.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	70.2%
No	29.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 37% of total probability)
1-1	9.1%
2-1	8.2%
1-2	7.7%
2-2	7.2%
3-1	5.1%

SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

2026-09-20 17:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SC Paderborn 07	55.6%	1.80	—
Draw	22.6%	4.42	—
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	21.8%	4.59	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.2%
Under	39.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.3%
No	40.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
1-1	10.5%
2-1	9.8%
2-0	8.5%
1-0	8.3%
3-1	6.4%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.