Championship — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:00 UTC · home advantage ×1.19 · rho -0.300

Model performance this season

Based on 120 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.628 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	7	16.5%	14.3%	-2.2%
20%-40%	84	29.7%	33.3%	+3.7%
40%-60%	28	47.5%	35.7%	-11.8%
60%-80%	1	61.4%	100.0%	+38.6%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
Burnley FC 1-1 Middlesbrough FC	Model favoured: Middlesbrough FC (43%)
Millwall FC 0-3 Wrexham AFC	Model favoured: Millwall FC (45%)
Queens Park Rangers FC 2-1 Cardiff City FC	Model favoured: Queens Park Rangers FC (48%)
West Bromwich Albion FC 1-1 Charlton Athletic FC	Model favoured: West Bromwich Albion FC (49%)
Stoke City FC 1-0 Norwich City FC	Model favoured: Norwich City FC (37%)
Preston North End FC 1-3 Bristol City FC	Model favoured: Preston North End FC (38%)
West Ham United FC 4-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	Model favoured: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (39%)
Lincoln City FC 0-0 Blackburn Rovers FC	Model favoured: Blackburn Rovers FC (39%)
Sheffield United FC 3-2 Bolton Wanderers FC	Model favoured: Sheffield United FC (42%)
Portsmouth FC 0-2 Derby County FC	Model favoured: Portsmouth FC (40%)

Upcoming fixtures

Preston North End FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC

2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Preston North End FC	25.6%	3.91	2.62 (Matchbook)
Draw	34.4%	2.91	3.40 (Coral)
Blackburn Rovers FC	40.0%	2.50	3.05 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.1%
Under	54.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.6%
No	46.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	16.5%
0-0	12.2%
1-2	8.8%
0-2	8.1%
0-1	7.9%

Stoke City FC vs Charlton Athletic FC

2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Stoke City FC	25.1%	3.99	2.20 (Betfair)
Draw	34.4%	2.91	3.45 (Matchbook)
Charlton Athletic FC	40.6%	2.46	3.80 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	44.9%
Under	55.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.3%
No	46.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-1	16.5%
0-0	12.3%
1-2	8.9%
0-2	8.3%
0-1	8.0%

Lincoln City FC vs Southampton FC

2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Lincoln City FC	22.1%	4.53	4.30 (Smarkets)
Draw	32.5%	3.08	4.20 (Smarkets)
Southampton FC	45.4%	2.20	1.87 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.6%
Under	51.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.2%
No	44.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	15.6%
0-0	10.9%
1-2	9.4%
0-2	8.9%
0-1	7.8%

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Middlesbrough FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Queens Park Rangers FC	37.2%	2.69	3.35 (Matchbook)
Draw	33.2%	3.01	3.75 (Betfair)
Middlesbrough FC	29.6%	3.38	2.28 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.0%
Under	50.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.9%
No	42.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	16.0%
0-0	10.6%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	7.7%
2-0	6.9%

Sheffield United FC vs Norwich City FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Sheffield United FC	48.4%	2.07	2.78 (Betfair)
Draw	29.9%	3.34	3.65 (Betfair)
Norwich City FC	21.7%	4.61	2.72 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	56.2%
Under	43.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.4%
No	39.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	14.2%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	8.6%
2-0	8.3%
1-2	6.4%

Portsmouth FC vs Cardiff City FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Portsmouth FC	34.7%	2.88	2.44 (Smarkets)
Draw	30.1%	3.32	3.70 (Smarkets)
Cardiff City FC	35.2%	2.84	3.05 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.8%
Under	39.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.9%
No	34.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	13.9%
1-2	8.4%
2-1	8.3%
0-0	7.5%
2-2	6.6%

West Bromwich Albion FC vs Watford FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
West Bromwich Albion FC	45.6%	2.19	1.91 (Coral)
Draw	32.4%	3.08	3.85 (Smarkets)
Watford FC	22.0%	4.55	4.60 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.8%
Under	51.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.3%
No	44.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	15.6%
0-0	10.8%
2-1	9.4%
2-0	8.9%
1-0	7.8%

West Ham United FC vs Derby County FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
West Ham United FC	46.8%	2.14	1.43 (Matchbook)
Draw	28.0%	3.57	5.30 (Smarkets)
Derby County FC	25.2%	3.97	8.80 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.4%
Under	35.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.2%
No	32.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.7%
2-1	9.3%
1-2	6.8%
2-0	6.7%
0-0	6.6%

Burnley FC vs Bristol City FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Burnley FC	27.9%	3.59	2.04 (Betfair)
Draw	28.5%	3.51	3.75 (Smarkets)
Bristol City FC	43.6%	2.29	4.00 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.3%
Under	35.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.8%
No	32.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.8%
1-2	9.1%
2-1	7.2%
2-2	6.7%
0-0	6.6%

Millwall FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Millwall FC	38.4%	2.61	2.04 (Smarkets)
Draw	32.7%	3.06	3.60 (Bet Victor)
Bolton Wanderers FC	29.0%	3.45	4.20 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.6%
Under	48.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.0%
No	41.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	15.7%
0-0	10.1%
2-1	8.9%
1-2	7.6%
2-0	7.0%

Swansea City AFC vs Wrexham AFC

2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Swansea City AFC	47.6%	2.10	2.46 (Betfair)
Draw	32.8%	3.05	3.50 (Smarkets)
Wrexham AFC	19.5%	5.12	3.20 (Coral)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.5%
Under	54.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.9%
No	48.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 56% of total probability)
1-1	15.7%
0-0	11.9%
2-0	9.9%
2-1	9.4%
1-0	9.1%

Birmingham City FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

2026-09-06 11:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Birmingham City FC	44.6%	2.24	3.00 (Betfair)
Draw	28.0%	3.57	3.40 (Betfair)
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	27.4%	3.65	2.60 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	65.5%
Under	34.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	68.5%
No	31.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.5%
2-1	9.1%
1-2	7.1%
2-2	6.7%
0-0	6.3%

Blackburn Rovers FC vs Sheffield United FC

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Blackburn Rovers FC	33.8%	2.96	2.70 (LeoVegas)
Draw	34.3%	2.91	3.40 (LeoVegas)
Sheffield United FC	31.9%	3.14	2.50 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	46.7%
Under	53.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.6%
No	44.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-1	16.5%
0-0	11.7%
2-1	8.2%
1-2	8.0%
2-0	6.6%

Southampton FC vs Swansea City AFC

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Southampton FC	36.0%	2.78	1.93 (Casumo)
Draw	33.2%	3.01	3.60 (LeoVegas)
Swansea City AFC	30.8%	3.25	3.95 (LeoVegas)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.3%
Under	49.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	58.2%
No	41.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	15.9%
0-0	10.5%
2-1	8.6%
1-2	7.9%
2-0	6.7%

Watford FC vs Preston North End FC

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Watford FC	47.3%	2.12	2.02 (Casumo)
Draw	32.3%	3.09	3.55 (LeoVegas)
Preston North End FC	20.4%	4.90	3.55 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	47.9%
Under	52.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.0%
No	46.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-1	15.5%
0-0	11.1%
2-1	9.5%
2-0	9.4%
1-0	8.3%

Cardiff City FC vs Stoke City FC

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Cardiff City FC	49.6%	2.02	2.18 (Casumo)
Draw	29.0%	3.45	3.50 (Grosvenor)
Stoke City FC	21.4%	4.67	3.10 (LeoVegas)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.8%
Under	41.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.0%
No	38.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-1	13.7%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	8.1%
0-0	7.9%
1-2	6.3%

Wrexham AFC vs Burnley FC

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Wrexham AFC	59.8%	1.67	2.25 (LeoVegas)
Draw	25.2%	3.97	3.60 (Casumo)
Burnley FC	14.9%	6.69	2.90 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	63.1%
Under	36.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.1%
No	38.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	11.8%
2-1	9.9%
2-0	9.2%
3-1	7.2%
3-0	6.7%

Bolton Wanderers FC vs West Ham United FC

2026-09-08 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bolton Wanderers FC	32.4%	3.08	4.50 (Grosvenor)
Draw	31.0%	3.22	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
West Ham United FC	36.5%	2.74	1.73 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.6%
Under	42.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.6%
No	36.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-1	14.6%
1-2	8.7%
0-0	8.4%
2-1	8.1%
2-2	6.3%

Derby County FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC

2026-09-09 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Derby County FC	36.5%	2.74	2.25 (Casumo)
Draw	31.6%	3.17	3.30 (LeoVegas)
West Bromwich Albion FC	31.9%	3.13	3.10 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.8%
Under	44.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.2%
No	37.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	14.9%
0-0	8.9%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	8.1%
2-0	6.2%

Norwich City FC vs Birmingham City FC

2026-09-09 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Norwich City FC	29.3%	3.41	2.05 (LeoVegas)
Draw	34.0%	2.94	3.50 (Casumo)
Birmingham City FC	36.7%	2.72	3.50 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	47.5%
Under	52.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.0%
No	44.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-1	16.4%
0-0	11.4%
1-2	8.6%
2-1	7.6%
0-2	7.1%

Charlton Athletic FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC

2026-09-09 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Charlton Athletic FC	38.5%	2.60	2.65 (Casumo)
Draw	34.8%	2.88	3.35 (LeoVegas)
Queens Park Rangers FC	26.7%	3.75	2.60 (LeoVegas)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	44.3%
Under	55.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.3%
No	46.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	16.7%
0-0	12.5%
2-1	8.6%
2-0	7.8%
1-0	7.8%

West Ham United FC vs Wrexham AFC

2026-09-11 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
West Ham United FC	37.4%	2.67	—
Draw	30.2%	3.32	—
Wrexham AFC	32.4%	3.08	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.3%
Under	39.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.5%
No	34.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	13.9%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	8.1%
0-0	7.6%
2-2	6.5%

Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC

2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Derby County FC	31.5%	3.17	—
Draw	33.6%	2.98	—
Birmingham City FC	34.9%	2.87	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.1%
Under	50.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.4%
No	42.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	16.2%
0-0	10.9%
1-2	8.4%
2-1	8.0%
0-2	6.6%

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Cardiff City FC

2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bolton Wanderers FC	36.2%	2.76	—
Draw	32.0%	3.13	—
Cardiff City FC	31.8%	3.14	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.4%
Under	45.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.3%
No	38.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	15.2%
0-0	9.3%
2-1	8.6%
1-2	8.1%
2-0	6.3%

West Bromwich Albion FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC

2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
West Bromwich Albion FC	37.5%	2.67	—
Draw	32.5%	3.07	—
Queens Park Rangers FC	30.0%	3.33	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	52.3%
Under	47.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.6%
No	40.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	15.6%
0-0	9.9%
2-1	8.8%
1-2	7.8%
2-0	6.7%

Southampton FC vs Bristol City FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Southampton FC	54.3%	1.84	—
Draw	26.3%	3.80	—
Bristol City FC	19.4%	5.16	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	65.1%
Under	34.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.4%
No	34.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	11.9%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	7.8%
3-1	6.8%
0-0	6.2%

Preston North End FC vs Lincoln City FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Preston North End FC	28.9%	3.46	—
Draw	36.1%	2.77	—
Lincoln City FC	35.0%	2.86	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.9%
Under	59.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.0%
No	49.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-1	17.1%
0-0	13.8%
1-2	8.1%
0-1	8.1%
0-2	7.3%

Blackburn Rovers FC vs Millwall FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Blackburn Rovers FC	43.7%	2.29	—
Draw	32.9%	3.04	—
Millwall FC	23.4%	4.26	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.6%
Under	51.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.6%
No	44.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 52% of total probability)
1-1	15.8%
0-0	11.0%
2-1	9.3%
2-0	8.5%
1-0	7.5%

Charlton Athletic FC vs Portsmouth FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Charlton Athletic FC	50.6%	1.98	—
Draw	31.0%	3.23	—
Portsmouth FC	18.4%	5.42	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.1%
Under	49.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.5%
No	45.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	14.9%
0-0	10.3%
2-0	9.9%
2-1	9.7%
1-0	8.2%

Watford FC vs Stoke City FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Watford FC	42.8%	2.34	—
Draw	33.4%	3.00	—
Stoke City FC	23.9%	4.19	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	47.2%
Under	52.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.8%
No	45.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	16.0%
0-0	11.4%
2-1	9.2%
2-0	8.5%
1-0	7.7%

Swansea City AFC vs Burnley FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Swansea City AFC	67.7%	1.48	—
Draw	22.9%	4.36	—
Burnley FC	9.4%	10.63	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	59.7%
Under	40.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.6%
No	47.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
2-0	11.7%
1-1	11.0%
2-1	9.6%
3-0	8.9%
1-0	7.8%

Middlesbrough FC vs Norwich City FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Middlesbrough FC	49.0%	2.04	—
Draw	30.5%	3.27	—
Norwich City FC	20.5%	4.88	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.3%
Under	46.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.8%
No	42.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	14.6%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	9.4%
2-0	8.9%
1-0	7.0%

Sheffield United FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

2026-09-13 11:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Sheffield United FC	44.1%	2.27	—
Draw	26.0%	3.85	—
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	29.9%	3.35	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	72.4%
Under	27.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	73.8%
No	26.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 39% of total probability)
1-1	10.6%
2-1	8.4%
2-2	7.1%
1-2	6.9%
3-1	5.8%

Middlesbrough FC vs Millwall FC

2026-09-15 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Middlesbrough FC	51.5%	1.94	—
Draw	29.4%	3.40	—
Millwall FC	19.1%	5.24	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.3%
Under	44.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	58.5%
No	41.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	14.1%
2-1	9.8%
2-0	9.1%
0-0	8.8%
1-0	6.8%

Bristol City FC vs Lincoln City FC

2026-09-15 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bristol City FC	45.2%	2.21	—
Draw	33.1%	3.03	—
Lincoln City FC	21.8%	4.59	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	46.8%
Under	53.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.7%
No	46.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-1	15.9%
0-0	11.5%
2-1	9.3%
2-0	9.1%
1-0	8.3%

Bristol City FC vs Watford FC

2026-09-18 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bristol City FC	46.8%	2.14	—
Draw	31.3%	3.20	—
Watford FC	22.0%	4.55	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	52.4%
Under	47.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.8%
No	42.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	15.0%
0-0	9.7%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	8.6%
1-0	6.9%

Stoke City FC vs Sheffield United FC

2026-09-19 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Stoke City FC	26.2%	3.82	—
Draw	31.6%	3.16	—
Sheffield United FC	42.2%	2.37	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.9%
Under	46.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.1%
No	39.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-1	15.1%
0-0	9.4%
1-2	9.3%
0-2	7.5%
2-1	7.2%

Millwall FC vs West Ham United FC

2026-09-19 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Millwall FC	32.3%	3.09	—
Draw	29.2%	3.43	—
West Ham United FC	38.5%	2.60	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	63.4%
Under	36.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.7%
No	32.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	13.2%
1-2	8.7%
2-1	7.9%
0-0	6.9%
2-2	6.8%

Cardiff City FC vs Charlton Athletic FC

2026-09-19 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Cardiff City FC	33.2%	3.02	—
Draw	33.4%	3.00	—
Charlton Athletic FC	33.5%	2.99	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.9%
Under	50.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	58.0%
No	42.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	16.0%
0-0	10.6%
1-2	8.3%
2-1	8.2%
0-2	6.2%

Wrexham AFC vs Southampton FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Wrexham AFC	33.1%	3.02	—
Draw	30.9%	3.24	—
Southampton FC	36.0%	2.78	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.0%
Under	42.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.9%
No	36.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-1	14.5%
1-2	8.6%
0-0	8.2%
2-1	8.2%
2-2	6.3%

Burnley FC vs Derby County FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Burnley FC	31.4%	3.19	—
Draw	29.4%	3.40	—
Derby County FC	39.2%	2.55	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.4%
Under	37.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	66.9%
No	33.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
1-1	13.4%
1-2	8.8%
2-1	7.8%
0-0	7.1%
2-2	6.7%

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Preston North End FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Queens Park Rangers FC	58.0%	1.72	—
Draw	27.5%	3.63	—
Preston North End FC	14.5%	6.92	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.2%
Under	44.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.3%
No	44.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	13.2%
2-0	10.6%
2-1	9.9%
0-0	8.6%
1-0	7.8%

Portsmouth FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Portsmouth FC	32.1%	3.12	—
Draw	33.9%	2.95	—
Blackburn Rovers FC	34.0%	2.94	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.2%
Under	51.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.7%
No	43.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	16.3%
0-0	11.2%
1-2	8.3%
2-1	8.0%
0-2	6.5%

Birmingham City FC vs Middlesbrough FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Birmingham City FC	38.3%	2.61	—
Draw	34.5%	2.90	—
Middlesbrough FC	27.1%	3.69	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.2%
Under	54.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.0%
No	46.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	16.6%
0-0	12.2%
2-1	8.7%
2-0	7.7%
1-0	7.5%

Lincoln City FC vs Swansea City AFC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Lincoln City FC	19.2%	5.20	—
Draw	36.1%	2.77	—
Swansea City AFC	44.7%	2.24	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	35.8%
Under	64.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.5%
No	55.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 63% of total probability)
1-1	16.5%
0-0	15.7%
0-1	11.9%
0-2	10.3%
1-2	8.4%

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC

2026-09-20 11:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	45.5%	2.20	—
Draw	26.0%	3.84	—
West Bromwich Albion FC	28.4%	3.52	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	71.8%
Under	28.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	73.1%
No	26.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 39% of total probability)
1-1	10.7%
2-1	8.6%
2-2	7.1%
1-2	6.8%
3-1	5.9%

Norwich City FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC

2026-09-20 12:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Norwich City FC	40.0%	2.50	—
Draw	32.9%	3.04	—
Bolton Wanderers FC	27.1%	3.69	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.3%
Under	49.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.7%
No	42.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-1	15.8%
0-0	10.5%
2-1	9.0%
2-0	7.5%
1-2	7.3%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.