La Liga — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:01 UTC · home advantage ×1.54 · rho +0.100

Model performance this season

Based on 96 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.587 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	10	17.7%	0.0%	-17.7%
20%-40%	56	27.0%	26.8%	-0.2%
40%-60%	26	48.0%	50.0%	+2.0%
60%-80%	4	65.8%	100.0%	+34.2%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
Real Betis Balompié 1-0 Real Madrid CF	Model favoured: Real Betis Balompié (40%)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-0 RC Celta de Vigo	Model favoured: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (47%)
FC Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	Model favoured: FC Barcelona (57%)
CA Osasuna 1-0 Getafe CF	Model favoured: CA Osasuna (43%)
RC Celta de Vigo 0-2 Athletic Club	Model favoured: RC Celta de Vigo (54%)
RC Deportivo La Coruña 3-1 Valencia CF	Model favoured: Valencia CF (44%)
Real Madrid CF 4-0 Málaga CF	Model favoured: Real Madrid CF (73%)
Sevilla FC 1-3 Club Atlético de Madrid	Model favoured: Sevilla FC (47%)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	Model favoured: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (51%)
Levante UD 5-2 Real Betis Balompié	Model favoured: Levante UD (49%)

Upcoming fixtures

Athletic Club vs Club Atlético de Madrid

2026-09-05 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Athletic Club	46.6%	2.15	—
Draw	22.2%	4.51	—
Club Atlético de Madrid	31.3%	3.20	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.0%
Under	45.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.4%
No	43.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	10.3%
1-0	10.2%
2-1	9.2%
0-1	8.2%
2-0	7.3%

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Racing Club de Santander

2026-09-05 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	54.4%	1.84	2.15 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	19.3%	5.18	3.70 (Bet Victor)
Real Racing Club de Santander	26.3%	3.80	3.85 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	67.4%
Under	32.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	64.9%
No	35.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
2-1	9.4%
1-1	8.1%
1-0	7.3%
2-0	6.7%
2-2	6.5%

Villarreal CF vs RC Deportivo La Coruña

2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Villarreal CF	53.0%	1.89	1.53 (Smarkets)
Draw	21.4%	4.67	4.80 (Smarkets)
RC Deportivo La Coruña	25.6%	3.91	6.80 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.7%
Under	45.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.6%
No	45.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-0	11.0%
1-1	10.0%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	8.6%
0-1	7.5%

Valencia CF vs FC Barcelona

2026-09-06 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Valencia CF	27.5%	3.63	11.00 (Betfair)
Draw	20.8%	4.82	6.60 (Betfair)
FC Barcelona	51.7%	1.93	1.31 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.0%
Under	40.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.4%
No	40.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-2	9.6%
1-1	9.4%
0-1	9.3%
0-2	7.5%
1-0	6.7%

Deportivo Alavés vs CA Osasuna

2026-09-06 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Deportivo Alavés	50.3%	1.99	2.38 (Betfair)
Draw	25.7%	3.88	3.10 (Betfred (UK))
CA Osasuna	24.0%	4.17	3.75 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	36.2%
Under	63.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	39.6%
No	60.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 60% of total probability)
1-0	16.9%
1-1	11.4%
0-1	10.8%
0-0	10.5%
2-0	10.4%

Málaga CF vs Levante UD

2026-09-06 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Málaga CF	34.6%	2.89	2.50 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	21.8%	4.59	3.45 (Smarkets)
Levante UD	43.6%	2.29	3.25 (Matchbook)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.6%
Under	41.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.7%
No	40.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	9.9%
1-2	8.9%
0-1	8.9%
1-0	7.9%
2-1	7.8%

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Sevilla FC

2026-09-06 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	55.1%	1.82	2.36 (Betfair)
Draw	20.5%	4.88	3.30 (Betfair)
Sevilla FC	24.4%	4.09	3.60 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.1%
Under	41.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.8%
No	43.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-0	10.2%
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.5%
2-0	8.5%
0-1	6.7%

Getafe CF vs RC Celta de Vigo

2026-09-07 17:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Getafe CF	50.3%	1.99	2.52 (Betfair)
Draw	28.3%	3.53	2.96 (Betfair)
RC Celta de Vigo	21.4%	4.68	3.65 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	27.9%
Under	72.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	31.9%
No	68.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 69% of total probability)
1-0	20.2%
0-0	14.7%
0-1	11.5%
2-0	11.3%
1-1	11.0%

Elche CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol

2026-09-07 19:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Elche CF	50.5%	1.98	3.10 (Betfair)
Draw	21.9%	4.57	3.65 (Betfair)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	27.7%	3.62	2.42 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.0%
Under	46.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.8%
No	45.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-0	10.9%
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.5%
2-0	8.2%
0-1	7.9%

Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF

2026-09-11 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Sevilla FC	57.8%	1.73	2.32 (Betfair)
Draw	20.5%	4.88	3.20 (Betfred (UK))
Valencia CF	21.7%	4.61	3.55 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.7%
Under	45.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.8%
No	47.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.6%
2-1	9.9%
2-0	9.7%
1-1	9.6%
0-1	6.9%

Real Racing Club de Santander vs Deportivo Alavés

2026-09-12 12:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Real Racing Club de Santander	44.7%	2.24	2.46 (Betfair)
Draw	23.5%	4.26	3.55 (Betfair)
Deportivo Alavés	31.9%	3.14	2.98 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.9%
Under	51.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.8%
No	48.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-0	11.7%
1-1	11.1%
0-1	9.7%
2-1	9.0%
2-0	7.6%

CA Osasuna vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

2026-09-12 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
CA Osasuna	54.3%	1.84	2.10 (Betfair)
Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.50 (Grosvenor)
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	22.6%	4.42	4.10 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	44.3%
Under	55.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	45.3%
No	54.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-0	14.7%
1-1	10.8%
2-0	10.5%
2-1	9.3%
0-1	8.9%

Athletic Club vs Elche CF

2026-09-12 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Athletic Club	62.8%	1.59	—
Draw	18.6%	5.39	—
Elche CF	18.7%	5.36	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.0%
Under	40.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.1%
No	44.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-0	10.3%
2-1	9.9%
2-0	9.7%
1-1	8.6%
3-1	6.9%

Real Madrid CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Real Madrid CF	73.6%	1.36	1.15 (William Hill)
Draw	14.2%	7.02	8.60 (Betfair)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	12.2%	8.23	17.00 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	69.4%
Under	30.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.5%
No	43.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
2-0	9.6%
2-1	9.2%
3-0	8.4%
3-1	8.0%
1-0	8.0%

RC Celta de Vigo vs Málaga CF

2026-09-13 12:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RC Celta de Vigo	51.1%	1.96	1.80 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.60 (Betfred (UK))
Málaga CF	23.3%	4.28	4.80 (William Hill)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	36.4%
Under	63.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	39.5%
No	60.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 60% of total probability)
1-0	17.0%
1-1	11.3%
2-0	10.6%
0-1	10.5%
0-0	10.4%

Levante UD vs FC Barcelona

2026-09-13 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Levante UD	42.0%	2.38	10.00 (William Hill)
Draw	19.9%	5.04	6.60 (Betfair)
FC Barcelona	38.2%	2.62	1.29 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	71.7%
Under	28.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	70.4%
No	29.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 36% of total probability)
2-1	8.0%
1-2	7.6%
1-1	7.6%
2-2	7.2%
1-0	5.5%

Getafe CF vs RC Deportivo La Coruña

2026-09-13 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Getafe CF	43.4%	2.30	2.15 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.00 (Betfred (UK))
RC Deportivo La Coruña	31.1%	3.21	4.00 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.4%
Under	59.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.9%
No	55.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
1-0	14.1%
1-1	11.8%
0-1	11.6%
0-0	8.7%
2-1	8.3%

Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs Club Atlético de Madrid

2026-09-13 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	39.3%	2.55	3.20 (Betfair)
Draw	23.2%	4.31	3.75 (Betfred (UK))
Club Atlético de Madrid	37.6%	2.66	2.18 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.6%
Under	48.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.4%
No	45.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-1	10.9%
1-0	10.2%
0-1	9.9%
2-1	8.4%
1-2	8.2%

Villarreal CF vs Real Betis Balompié

2026-09-14 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Villarreal CF	53.7%	1.86	1.91 (Unibet (UK))
Draw	21.7%	4.60	3.85 (Casumo)
Real Betis Balompié	24.6%	4.07	4.00 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	52.0%
Under	48.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.1%
No	47.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-0	12.0%
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	9.2%
0-1	7.8%

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

2026-09-15 17:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	52.6%	1.90	—
Draw	20.2%	4.94	—
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	27.2%	3.68	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.8%
Under	37.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.5%
No	38.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
2-1	9.5%
1-1	8.9%
1-0	8.5%
2-0	7.2%
1-2	6.5%

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF

2026-09-15 18:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Deportivo Alavés	62.1%	1.61	—
Draw	21.0%	4.75	—
Valencia CF	16.9%	5.92	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.4%
Under	54.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	42.5%
No	57.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-0	15.5%
2-0	12.5%
1-1	9.7%
2-1	9.4%
0-1	7.3%

Elche CF vs Real Madrid CF

2026-09-15 19:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Elche CF	29.5%	3.39	—
Draw	21.2%	4.71	—
Real Madrid CF	49.3%	2.03	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.9%
Under	41.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.1%
No	40.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	9.7%
1-2	9.4%
0-1	9.3%
0-2	7.3%
1-0	7.2%

RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Sevilla FC

2026-09-16 17:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RC Deportivo La Coruña	59.7%	1.68	—
Draw	19.2%	5.19	—
Sevilla FC	21.1%	4.75	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.4%
Under	39.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.9%
No	43.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.9%
2-0	9.0%
1-1	8.8%
3-1	6.7%

Club Atlético de Madrid vs CA Osasuna

2026-09-16 17:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Club Atlético de Madrid	55.4%	1.81	—
Draw	22.0%	4.55	—
CA Osasuna	22.7%	4.41	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.9%
Under	51.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	48.8%
No	51.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-0	13.2%
1-1	10.4%
2-0	10.1%
2-1	9.7%
0-1	8.0%

Levante UD vs Athletic Club

2026-09-16 19:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Levante UD	58.9%	1.70	—
Draw	19.3%	5.18	—
Athletic Club	21.8%	4.59	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.3%
Under	38.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	58.0%
No	42.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.5%
1-1	8.8%
2-0	8.7%
3-1	6.7%

FC Barcelona vs Real Racing Club de Santander

2026-09-16 19:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Barcelona	76.8%	1.30	—
Draw	12.5%	8.00	—
Real Racing Club de Santander	10.7%	9.34	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	75.9%
Under	24.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.4%
No	39.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 39% of total probability)
2-1	8.4%
3-1	8.2%
2-0	8.1%
3-0	8.0%
4-1	6.1%

Real Betis Balompié vs Getafe CF

2026-09-17 17:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Real Betis Balompié	54.4%	1.84	—
Draw	24.0%	4.17	—
Getafe CF	21.6%	4.62	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.0%
Under	60.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	41.5%
No	58.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 57% of total probability)
1-0	16.3%
2-0	11.1%
1-1	10.9%
0-1	9.4%
2-1	9.0%

Málaga CF vs Villarreal CF

2026-09-17 19:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Málaga CF	36.3%	2.75	—
Draw	23.6%	4.24	—
Villarreal CF	40.1%	2.49	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.4%
Under	50.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.6%
No	47.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	11.2%
0-1	10.9%
1-0	10.3%
1-2	8.5%
2-1	8.0%

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Elche CF

2026-09-18 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	61.3%	1.63	—
Draw	18.7%	5.35	—
Elche CF	20.0%	4.99	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.9%
Under	38.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.5%
No	42.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.5%
2-0	9.0%
1-1	8.5%
3-1	6.9%

CA Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

2026-09-19 12:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
CA Osasuna	58.4%	1.71	—
Draw	20.5%	4.88	—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	21.1%	4.73	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.9%
Under	46.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.9%
No	48.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.9%
2-0	10.0%
2-1	9.9%
1-1	9.7%
0-1	6.9%

Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés

2026-09-19 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Athletic Club	46.3%	2.16	—
Draw	24.7%	4.05	—
Deportivo Alavés	29.0%	3.44	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	42.4%
Under	57.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.1%
No	53.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-0	14.0%
1-1	11.5%
0-1	10.7%
2-1	8.8%
2-0	8.7%

RC Celta de Vigo vs Real Racing Club de Santander

2026-09-19 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RC Celta de Vigo	42.9%	2.33	—
Draw	25.3%	3.95	—
Real Racing Club de Santander	31.7%	3.15	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	41.1%
Under	58.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	45.5%
No	54.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
1-0	13.8%
1-1	11.8%
0-1	11.6%
0-0	8.5%
2-1	8.4%

Sevilla FC vs FC Barcelona

2026-09-19 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Sevilla FC	32.5%	3.07	—
Draw	20.2%	4.95	—
FC Barcelona	47.3%	2.12	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	67.3%
Under	32.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	66.3%
No	33.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 38% of total probability)
1-2	8.9%
1-1	8.3%
2-1	7.2%
2-2	6.9%
0-1	6.9%

Getafe CF vs Málaga CF

2026-09-20 12:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Getafe CF	57.0%	1.76	—
Draw	23.4%	4.28	—
Málaga CF	19.6%	5.09	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.3%
Under	59.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	40.6%
No	59.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 57% of total probability)
1-0	16.6%
2-0	11.9%
1-1	10.6%
2-1	9.0%
0-0	8.9%

Club Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid CF

2026-09-20 14:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Club Atlético de Madrid	44.6%	2.24	—
Draw	22.0%	4.55	—
Real Madrid CF	33.4%	2.99	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.1%
Under	42.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	58.5%
No	41.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
1-1	10.1%
1-0	9.4%
2-1	9.1%
0-1	8.1%
1-2	7.6%

RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis Balompié

2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RC Deportivo La Coruña	53.8%	1.86	—
Draw	21.5%	4.66	—
Real Betis Balompié	24.8%	4.04	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.4%
Under	46.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.3%
No	46.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.5%
1-1	10.1%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	9.0%
0-1	7.6%

Villarreal CF vs Levante UD

2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Villarreal CF	51.7%	1.93	—
Draw	20.5%	4.88	—
Levante UD	27.8%	3.60	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.8%
Under	38.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.9%
No	39.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
2-1	9.5%
1-1	9.1%
1-0	8.8%
2-0	7.3%
1-2	6.7%

Valencia CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol

2026-09-20 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Valencia CF	48.6%	2.06	—
Draw	24.1%	4.15	—
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	27.3%	3.66	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	43.9%
Under	56.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.8%
No	53.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-0	13.9%
1-1	11.3%
0-1	10.0%
2-0	9.1%
2-1	9.0%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.