Ligue 1 — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:02 UTC · home advantage ×1.15 · rho -0.205

Model performance this season

Based on 63 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.621 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	2	18.8%	0.0%	-18.8%
20%-40%	48	30.1%	29.2%	-0.9%
40%-60%	13	47.7%	53.8%	+6.2%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
Paris Saint-Germain FC 1-2 AS Monaco FC	Model favoured: Paris Saint-Germain FC (50%)
Olympique Lyonnais 3-1 AJ Auxerre	Model favoured: Olympique Lyonnais (41%)
Toulouse FC 0-1 Lille OSC	Model favoured: Lille OSC (41%)
AS Monaco FC 2-0 Olympique de Marseille	Model favoured: AS Monaco FC (39%)
Stade Rennais FC 1901 3-2 Le Mans FC	Model favoured: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (57%)
Paris FC 3-0 OGC Nice	Model favoured: Paris FC (47%)
FC Lorient 1-2 ES Troyes AC	Model favoured: FC Lorient (52%)
Olympique Lyonnais 1-1 Le Havre AC	Model favoured: Olympique Lyonnais (44%)
AJ Auxerre 1-3 Angers SCO	Model favoured: AJ Auxerre (50%)
Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse FC	Model favoured: Toulouse FC (36%)

Upcoming fixtures

Racing Club de Lens vs FC Lorient

2026-09-05 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Racing Club de Lens	47.9%	2.09	—
Draw	27.2%	3.68	—
FC Lorient	24.9%	4.01	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.1%
Under	39.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.8%
No	37.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	12.6%
2-1	9.5%
2-0	7.4%
1-2	6.7%
0-0	6.6%

Le Havre AC vs Stade Brestois 29

2026-09-05 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Le Havre AC	42.0%	2.38	2.82 (Smarkets)
Draw	30.7%	3.26	3.40 (Betfred (UK))
Stade Brestois 29	27.3%	3.67	2.82 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.5%
Under	50.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.8%
No	44.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	14.7%
0-0	9.5%
2-1	9.1%
1-0	8.0%
2-0	7.8%

OGC Nice vs Le Mans FC

2026-09-05 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
OGC Nice	31.6%	3.16	1.89 (Betfair)
Draw	29.6%	3.38	3.85 (Betfair)
Le Mans FC	38.8%	2.58	4.60 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.8%
Under	45.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.3%
No	39.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	14.0%
1-2	8.8%
0-0	8.0%
2-1	7.9%
0-2	6.5%

ES Troyes AC vs RC Strasbourg Alsace

2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
ES Troyes AC	47.1%	2.12	3.20 (Betfair)
Draw	28.5%	3.51	3.60 (Betfair Sportsbook)
RC Strasbourg Alsace	24.4%	4.10	2.40 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.2%
Under	44.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.2%
No	40.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-1	13.5%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	8.0%
0-0	7.8%
1-0	7.1%

Angers SCO vs Stade Rennais FC 1901

2026-09-06 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Angers SCO	30.0%	3.34	4.10 (Betfair)
Draw	27.5%	3.63	4.00 (Betfair)
Stade Rennais FC 1901	42.5%	2.35	1.93 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.6%
Under	38.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	65.1%
No	34.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.6%
1-2	9.1%
2-1	7.5%
2-2	6.5%
0-0	6.3%

Olympique de Marseille vs Paris FC

2026-09-06 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Olympique de Marseille	34.5%	2.90	1.84 (Betfair)
Draw	31.0%	3.22	4.10 (Betfair)
Paris FC	34.4%	2.90	4.60 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.9%
Under	50.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.9%
No	43.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-1	14.9%
0-0	9.4%
2-1	8.2%
1-2	8.2%
1-0	6.7%

Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs Olympique de Marseille

2026-09-11 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Stade Rennais FC 1901	39.7%	2.52	2.38 (Sky Bet)
Draw	27.1%	3.69	3.80 (Betfair)
Olympique de Marseille	33.2%	3.01	2.95 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.0%
Under	36.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.2%
No	32.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	12.1%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	7.9%
2-2	6.8%
0-0	5.7%

RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AS Monaco FC

2026-09-12 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
RC Strasbourg Alsace	25.8%	3.87	3.20 (Grosvenor)
Draw	27.3%	3.66	3.80 (Betfair Sportsbook)
AS Monaco FC	46.9%	2.13	2.15 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.3%
Under	39.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.3%
No	36.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	12.6%
1-2	9.5%
0-2	7.2%
2-1	6.9%
0-0	6.6%

FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC

2026-09-12 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Lorient	42.3%	2.36	2.63 (Grosvenor)
Draw	30.6%	3.26	3.30 (Betfred (UK))
Toulouse FC	27.1%	3.69	2.75 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.6%
Under	50.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.8%
No	44.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	14.7%
0-0	9.5%
2-1	9.1%
1-0	8.0%
2-0	7.8%

AJ Auxerre vs OGC Nice

2026-09-12 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AJ Auxerre	40.4%	2.48	2.55 (Grosvenor)
Draw	29.1%	3.43	3.30 (Betfred (UK))
OGC Nice	30.5%	3.28	2.88 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	56.1%
Under	43.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.2%
No	38.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	13.7%
2-1	9.0%
1-2	7.7%
0-0	7.7%
2-0	6.6%

Le Havre AC vs Angers SCO

2026-09-12 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Le Havre AC	42.9%	2.33	2.23 (Grosvenor)
Draw	31.6%	3.16	3.30 (Betfred (UK))
Angers SCO	25.5%	3.93	3.40 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.5%
Under	54.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.4%
No	47.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-1	15.1%
0-0	10.8%
1-0	9.2%
2-1	9.0%
2-0	8.4%

Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais

2026-09-12 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Paris FC	42.0%	2.38	2.64 (Smarkets)
Draw	30.6%	3.27	3.75 (BoyleSports)
Olympique Lyonnais	27.4%	3.64	2.60 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.0%
Under	50.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	56.2%
No	43.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	14.6%
0-0	9.4%
2-1	9.1%
1-0	7.8%
2-0	7.7%

Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC

2026-09-13 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Lille OSC	42.5%	2.35	1.42 (Unibet (UK))
Draw	32.8%	3.05	4.60 (Betfred (UK))
ES Troyes AC	24.7%	4.05	8.50 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	41.3%
Under	58.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	49.0%
No	51.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 56% of total probability)
1-1	15.5%
0-0	12.3%
1-0	10.4%
2-0	8.8%
2-1	8.7%

Le Mans FC vs Racing Club de Lens

2026-09-13 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Le Mans FC	34.9%	2.87	—
Draw	25.3%	3.95	—
Racing Club de Lens	39.8%	2.51	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	70.4%
Under	29.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	71.9%
No	28.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 39% of total probability)
1-1	10.5%
1-2	8.2%
2-1	7.6%
2-2	7.2%
1-3	5.1%

Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint-Germain FC

2026-09-13 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Stade Brestois 29	28.4%	3.53	—
Draw	27.8%	3.60	—
Paris Saint-Germain FC	43.9%	2.28	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.1%
Under	39.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.7%
No	36.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	12.8%
1-2	9.2%
2-1	7.3%
0-2	6.7%
0-0	6.6%

AS Monaco FC vs Racing Club de Lens

2026-09-18 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AS Monaco FC	50.0%	2.00	—
Draw	26.3%	3.80	—
Racing Club de Lens	23.7%	4.22	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.2%
Under	37.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.9%
No	36.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.1%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	7.4%
1-2	6.5%
2-2	6.2%

Paris FC vs RC Strasbourg Alsace

2026-09-19 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Paris FC	53.1%	1.88	—
Draw	26.7%	3.75	—
RC Strasbourg Alsace	20.2%	4.95	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.9%
Under	42.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.3%
No	40.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	12.6%
2-1	9.9%
2-0	8.8%
1-0	7.2%
0-0	7.1%

Le Mans FC vs FC Lorient

2026-09-19 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Le Mans FC	40.9%	2.45	—
Draw	27.9%	3.59	—
FC Lorient	31.3%	3.20	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.8%
Under	39.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	64.7%
No	35.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	12.8%
2-1	8.9%
1-2	7.7%
2-2	6.5%
0-0	6.5%

Toulouse FC vs Le Havre AC

2026-09-19 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Toulouse FC	33.4%	2.99	—
Draw	32.5%	3.07	—
Le Havre AC	34.0%	2.94	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	44.6%
Under	55.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.8%
No	47.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-1	15.6%
0-0	11.2%
1-2	8.0%
2-1	7.9%
0-1	7.9%

Angers SCO vs ES Troyes AC

2026-09-19 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Angers SCO	28.0%	3.57	—
Draw	31.8%	3.15	—
ES Troyes AC	40.3%	2.48	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	46.2%
Under	53.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.5%
No	46.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-1	15.2%
0-0	10.6%
1-2	8.8%
0-1	8.6%
0-2	7.8%

Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Rennais FC 1901

2026-09-19 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Olympique Lyonnais	44.4%	2.25	—
Draw	26.7%	3.74	—
Stade Rennais FC 1901	28.9%	3.46	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	64.0%
Under	36.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	66.6%
No	33.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	12.0%
2-1	9.1%
1-2	7.3%
2-2	6.7%
2-0	6.2%

AJ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AJ Auxerre	35.6%	2.81	—
Draw	26.5%	3.77	—
Stade Brestois 29	37.9%	2.64	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	66.3%
Under	33.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	69.0%
No	31.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 40% of total probability)
1-1	11.5%
1-2	8.3%
2-1	8.0%
2-2	7.0%
0-0	5.2%

OGC Nice vs Lille OSC

2026-09-20 15:15 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
OGC Nice	20.0%	5.01	—
Draw	32.0%	3.13	—
Lille OSC	48.0%	2.08	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.3%
Under	59.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.5%
No	53.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 59% of total probability)
1-1	15.0%
0-0	12.6%
0-1	11.9%
0-2	10.4%
1-2	8.9%

Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain FC

2026-09-20 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Olympique de Marseille	38.4%	2.61	—
Draw	28.7%	3.48	—
Paris Saint-Germain FC	32.9%	3.04	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.0%
Under	42.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.8%
No	37.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
1-1	13.4%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	8.0%
0-0	7.2%
2-2	6.3%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.