Premier League — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:00 UTC · home advantage ×1.25 · rho +0.025

Model performance this season

Based on 63 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.581 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	2	11.5%	0.0%	-11.5%
20%-40%	42	27.7%	26.2%	-1.5%
40%-60%	17	45.8%	47.1%	+1.3%
60%-80%	2	67.8%	100.0%	+32.2%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
Ipswich Town FC 0-2 Liverpool FC	Model favoured: Liverpool FC (44%)
Aston Villa FC 0-1 Arsenal FC	Model favoured: Arsenal FC (39%)
Manchester United FC 5-2 Ipswich Town FC	Model favoured: Manchester United FC (66%)
Sunderland AFC 1-0 Fulham FC	Model favoured: Sunderland AFC (41%)
Chelsea FC 4-3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC	Model favoured: Chelsea FC (43%)
Leeds United FC 1-1 Brentford FC	Model favoured: Leeds United FC (42%)
Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-2 Newcastle United FC	Model favoured: Tottenham Hotspur FC (42%)
AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Everton FC	Model favoured: AFC Bournemouth (53%)
Coventry City FC 0-1 Hull City AFC	Model favoured: Coventry City FC (44%)
Liverpool FC 2-2 Nottingham Forest FC	Model favoured: Liverpool FC (47%)

Upcoming fixtures

Newcastle United FC vs AFC Bournemouth

2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Newcastle United FC	49.2%	2.03	2.16 (Betfair)
Draw	23.6%	4.23	3.90 (Betano (UK))
AFC Bournemouth	27.2%	3.68	3.55 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.1%
Under	45.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.8%
No	44.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-1	11.1%
1-0	10.0%
2-1	9.5%
2-0	8.1%
0-1	7.1%

Nottingham Forest FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Nottingham Forest FC	54.8%	1.82	2.52 (Betfair)
Draw	22.8%	4.38	3.60 (Betfair)
Tottenham Hotspur FC	22.4%	4.47	3.05 (Matchbook)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.1%
Under	46.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.2%
No	46.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.0%
1-1	10.8%
2-1	9.8%
2-0	9.5%
0-1	6.6%

Manchester City FC vs Coventry City FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Manchester City FC	68.8%	1.45	1.17 (Unibet (UK))
Draw	17.5%	5.70	10.00 (Smarkets)
Coventry City FC	13.7%	7.29	20.00 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	63.3%
Under	36.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.5%
No	45.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
2-0	10.4%
2-1	9.7%
1-0	9.1%
1-1	8.1%
3-0	8.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Leeds United FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	50.6%	1.98	2.10 (Betfair)
Draw	22.4%	4.46	3.65 (Betfair)
Leeds United FC	27.0%	3.71	3.85 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	59.6%
Under	40.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.0%
No	40.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.6%
1-0	8.6%
2-0	7.5%
1-2	6.7%

Brentford FC vs Sunderland AFC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Brentford FC	50.5%	1.98	1.78 (Smarkets)
Draw	24.5%	4.07	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Sunderland AFC	25.0%	4.00	5.40 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.5%
Under	51.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	50.8%
No	49.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-0	11.9%
1-1	11.7%
2-1	9.5%
2-0	9.2%
0-1	7.9%

Fulham FC vs Crystal Palace FC

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Fulham FC	53.1%	1.88	2.23 (Grosvenor)
Draw	22.5%	4.45	3.50 (Betfred (UK))
Crystal Palace FC	24.4%	4.10	3.85 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.0%
Under	43.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.0%
No	43.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	10.5%
2-1	9.8%
1-0	9.6%
2-0	8.5%
1-2	6.2%

Hull City AFC vs Aston Villa FC

2026-09-05 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Hull City AFC	59.9%	1.67	4.30 (Betfair)
Draw	22.5%	4.44	3.75 (Betfair)
Aston Villa FC	17.6%	5.68	1.97 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.3%
Under	51.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.7%
No	53.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 52% of total probability)
1-0	13.4%
2-0	11.6%
1-1	10.6%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	7.1%

Everton FC vs Manchester United FC

2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Everton FC	39.3%	2.54	3.55 (Betfair)
Draw	23.0%	4.35	3.75 (Betfair)
Manchester United FC	37.7%	2.65	2.16 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.6%
Under	38.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.1%
No	36.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	10.3%
2-1	8.5%
1-2	8.3%
1-0	7.0%
0-1	6.8%

Arsenal FC vs Chelsea FC

2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Arsenal FC	58.8%	1.70	1.77 (Matchbook)
Draw	20.2%	4.94	4.10 (Betfair)
Chelsea FC	21.0%	4.77	5.00 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	63.7%
Under	36.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	60.6%
No	39.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.1%
2-0	8.3%
1-0	8.1%
3-1	6.9%

Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Crystal Palace FC	46.4%	2.16	1.91 (BoyleSports)
Draw	21.8%	4.58	3.75 (Betfair)
Ipswich Town FC	31.8%	3.14	4.00 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	66.0%
Under	34.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	66.0%
No	34.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 39% of total probability)
1-1	9.3%
2-1	9.0%
1-2	7.3%
2-2	6.8%
1-0	6.5%

Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Liverpool FC	56.7%	1.76	1.47 (Betfair)
Draw	21.7%	4.60	5.00 (Betfred (UK))
Fulham FC	21.5%	4.64	6.80 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.1%
Under	42.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.8%
No	44.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	10.2%
1-0	9.9%
2-1	9.9%
2-0	9.2%
3-1	6.3%

Aston Villa FC vs Nottingham Forest FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Aston Villa FC	37.5%	2.67	2.06 (Smarkets)
Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.60 (Betfred (UK))
Nottingham Forest FC	38.0%	2.63	3.80 (Paddy Power)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.8%
Under	46.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.1%
No	42.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	11.5%
0-1	8.7%
1-0	8.6%
1-2	8.4%
2-1	8.3%

AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford FC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AFC Bournemouth	40.9%	2.45	2.70 (Betfair)
Draw	25.0%	3.99	3.75 (Betfair)
Brentford FC	34.1%	2.93	2.63 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.0%
Under	49.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.7%
No	45.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-1	11.9%
1-0	9.8%
0-1	8.8%
2-1	8.7%
1-2	7.8%

Chelsea FC vs Hull City AFC

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Chelsea FC	39.7%	2.52	1.25 (888sport)
Draw	23.3%	4.29	7.00 (Betfair)
Hull City AFC	37.0%	2.70	14.00 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	59.9%
Under	40.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.8%
No	38.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
1-1	10.5%
2-1	8.5%
1-2	8.2%
1-0	7.4%
0-1	7.1%

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Everton FC

2026-09-12 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Tottenham Hotspur FC	34.4%	2.91	2.00 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	25.9%	3.86	3.50 (Unibet (UK))
Everton FC	39.7%	2.52	3.75 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	47.3%
Under	52.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.8%
No	48.2%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	12.3%
0-1	10.6%
1-0	9.7%
1-2	8.5%
2-1	7.7%

Sunderland AFC vs Arsenal FC

2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Sunderland AFC	28.3%	3.53	7.20 (Betfair)
Draw	27.2%	3.68	4.40 (Betfair)
Arsenal FC	44.5%	2.25	1.53 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.5%
Under	59.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	45.6%
No	54.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
0-1	13.5%
1-1	12.7%
1-0	10.2%
0-0	9.6%
0-2	8.6%

Coventry City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC

2026-09-13 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Coventry City FC	31.4%	3.19	4.35 (Unibet (UK))
Draw	22.7%	4.41	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	45.9%	2.18	1.81 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	61.4%
Under	38.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	62.4%
No	37.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	10.2%
1-2	9.2%
0-1	7.6%
2-1	7.4%
2-2	6.5%

Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC

2026-09-13 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Manchester United FC	40.4%	2.48	3.20 (Betfair)
Draw	21.3%	4.70	4.10 (Betfair)
Manchester City FC	38.3%	2.61	2.15 (Unibet (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	70.8%
Under	29.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	70.3%
No	29.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 36% of total probability)
1-1	8.4%
2-1	8.0%
1-2	7.8%
2-2	7.2%
1-0	5.0%

Leeds United FC vs Newcastle United FC

2026-09-14 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Leeds United FC	40.1%	2.49	2.56 (Betfair)
Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.60 (Betfred (UK))
Newcastle United FC	34.3%	2.91	2.75 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.8%
Under	51.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.0%
No	47.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-1	12.1%
1-0	10.3%
0-1	9.4%
2-1	8.6%
1-2	7.8%

Brentford FC vs Chelsea FC

2026-09-18 19:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Brentford FC	49.1%	2.04	—
Draw	21.1%	4.75	—
Chelsea FC	29.9%	3.35	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	69.0%
Under	31.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	67.9%
No	32.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 37% of total probability)
2-1	8.9%
1-1	8.6%
2-2	6.9%
1-2	6.8%
3-1	6.0%

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Aston Villa FC

2026-09-19 11:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Tottenham Hotspur FC	41.9%	2.39	—
Draw	25.5%	3.93	—
Aston Villa FC	32.7%	3.06	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	48.8%
Under	51.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.9%
No	47.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-1	12.1%
1-0	10.5%
0-1	9.1%
2-1	8.8%
1-2	7.5%

Everton FC vs Ipswich Town FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Everton FC	58.9%	1.70	—
Draw	20.4%	4.90	—
Ipswich Town FC	20.7%	4.83	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.3%
Under	37.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.4%
No	40.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.3%
2-0	8.6%
1-0	8.5%
3-1	6.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Arsenal FC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	35.7%	2.80	—
Draw	23.8%	4.20	—
Arsenal FC	40.5%	2.47	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	57.2%
Under	42.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.7%
No	40.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 43% of total probability)
1-1	11.0%
1-2	8.7%
0-1	8.1%
2-1	8.1%
1-0	7.6%

Newcastle United FC vs Hull City AFC

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Newcastle United FC	39.7%	2.52	—
Draw	26.1%	3.83	—
Hull City AFC	34.2%	2.92	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	46.5%
Under	53.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.2%
No	48.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 49% of total probability)
1-1	12.4%
1-0	10.8%
0-1	9.9%
2-1	8.4%
1-2	7.7%

Nottingham Forest FC vs Coventry City FC

2026-09-19 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Nottingham Forest FC	53.9%	1.86	—
Draw	23.1%	4.33	—
Coventry City FC	23.1%	4.34	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	52.8%
Under	47.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.3%
No	46.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.0%
1-1	10.9%
2-1	9.8%
2-0	9.3%
0-1	6.7%

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AFC Bournemouth	40.1%	2.49	—
Draw	24.4%	4.10	—
Liverpool FC	35.6%	2.81	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.4%
Under	45.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	57.5%
No	42.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 45% of total probability)
1-1	11.4%
1-0	8.8%
2-1	8.7%
0-1	8.2%
1-2	8.1%

Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Leeds United FC	57.9%	1.73	—
Draw	22.0%	4.55	—
Crystal Palace FC	20.1%	4.98	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	54.0%
Under	46.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	52.7%
No	47.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	11.1%
1-1	10.4%
2-0	10.0%
2-1	9.9%
3-0	6.2%

Manchester City FC vs Sunderland AFC

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Manchester City FC	60.8%	1.65	—
Draw	20.6%	4.85	—
Sunderland AFC	18.6%	5.36	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	58.2%
Under	41.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	54.9%
No	45.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 46% of total probability)
1-0	10.0%
2-1	10.0%
2-0	9.8%
1-1	9.6%
3-1	6.7%

Fulham FC vs Manchester United FC

2026-09-20 15:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Fulham FC	34.1%	2.93	—
Draw	22.8%	4.39	—
Manchester United FC	43.1%	2.32	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.0%
Under	38.0%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	63.2%
No	36.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 41% of total probability)
1-1	10.1%
1-2	8.9%
2-1	7.8%
0-1	7.2%
2-2	6.6%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.