Serie A — Model Predictions

Generated 2026-09-05 08:01 UTC · home advantage ×0.91 · rho +0.252

Model performance this season

Based on 63 completed predictions. Log loss: 0.485 (0.693 = coin-flip baseline; lower is better).

Predicted range	Count	Avg predicted	Actual frequency	Gap
0%-20%	2	17.4%	0.0%	-17.4%
20%-40%	42	26.7%	11.9%	-14.8%
40%-60%	18	48.9%	83.3%	+34.5%
60%-80%	1	65.3%	100.0%	+34.7%

Recent results

Result	What the model said beforehand
Genoa CFC 1-4 Como 1907	Model favoured: Como 1907 (55%)
Atalanta BC 1-0 Bologna FC 1909	Model favoured: Atalanta BC (42%)
US Lecce 0-4 AS Roma	Model favoured: AS Roma (51%)
SS Lazio 1-0 Genoa CFC	Model favoured: SS Lazio (44%)
Cagliari Calcio 0-1 FC Internazionale Milano	Model favoured: FC Internazionale Milano (53%)
SSC Napoli 1-2 Como 1907	Model favoured: Como 1907 (38%)
Juventus FC 2-0 Parma Calcio 1913	Model favoured: Juventus FC (53%)
US Sassuolo Calcio 2-1 Torino FC	Model favoured: US Sassuolo Calcio (40%)
AC Monza 2-3 Udinese Calcio	Model favoured: Udinese Calcio (45%)
ACF Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone Calcio	Model favoured: ACF Fiorentina (50%)

Upcoming fixtures

ACF Fiorentina vs Torino FC

2026-09-05 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
ACF Fiorentina	30.6%	3.27	2.00 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	18.8%	5.31	3.60 (Bet Victor)
Torino FC	50.6%	1.98	4.50 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	52.2%
Under	47.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.9%
No	48.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
0-1	13.1%
1-0	10.3%
1-2	9.4%
1-1	8.8%
0-2	8.1%

FC Internazionale Milano vs SSC Napoli

2026-09-05 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Internazionale Milano	42.2%	2.37	—
Draw	19.7%	5.09	—
SSC Napoli	38.1%	2.62	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.4%
Under	49.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.5%
No	48.5%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
1-0	12.5%
0-1	11.9%
1-1	9.2%
2-1	8.5%
1-2	8.0%

AS Roma vs Atalanta BC

2026-09-05 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AS Roma	54.2%	1.85	1.75 (Betfair)
Draw	18.8%	5.33	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Atalanta BC	27.1%	3.69	5.40 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.8%
Under	50.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	48.9%
No	51.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 52% of total probability)
1-0	14.3%
0-1	10.2%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	9.2%
1-1	8.8%

Parma Calcio 1913 vs AC Monza

2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Parma Calcio 1913	35.5%	2.82	2.72 (Betfair)
Draw	19.1%	5.24	3.15 (Betfair)
AC Monza	45.4%	2.20	3.10 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.4%
Under	46.6%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.7%
No	46.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
0-1	12.1%
1-0	10.8%
1-2	8.9%
1-1	8.8%
2-1	7.6%

Frosinone Calcio vs Venezia FC

2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Frosinone Calcio	54.3%	1.84	2.88 (Betfair)
Draw	20.1%	4.98	3.50 (Betfair)
Venezia FC	25.6%	3.91	2.70 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	42.3%
Under	57.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	42.4%
No	57.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 57% of total probability)
1-0	17.0%
0-1	11.4%
2-0	10.3%
1-1	9.2%
2-1	9.1%

Bologna FC 1909 vs US Sassuolo Calcio

2026-09-06 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bologna FC 1909	35.7%	2.80	2.10 (Betfair)
Draw	20.7%	4.84	3.55 (Betfair)
US Sassuolo Calcio	43.7%	2.29	4.00 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	44.6%
Under	55.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.6%
No	53.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
0-1	14.5%
1-0	13.0%
1-1	9.6%
1-2	8.5%
0-2	7.4%

Juventus FC vs AC Milan

2026-09-06 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Juventus FC	41.0%	2.44	2.16 (Betfair)
Draw	20.9%	4.79	3.40 (Betfred (UK))
AC Milan	38.2%	2.62	4.00 (Matchbook)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	43.9%
Under	56.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.3%
No	53.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-0	14.2%
0-1	13.7%
1-1	9.7%
2-1	8.1%
1-2	7.7%

Cagliari Calcio vs US Lecce

2026-09-07 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Cagliari Calcio	40.2%	2.49	2.06 (Smarkets)
Draw	21.7%	4.61	3.30 (Smarkets)
US Lecce	38.1%	2.63	4.50 (Smarkets)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.3%
Under	59.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	43.2%
No	56.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
1-0	15.1%
0-1	14.7%
1-1	9.9%
2-1	7.8%
1-2	7.5%

Udinese Calcio vs SS Lazio

2026-09-07 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Udinese Calcio	35.2%	2.84	3.00 (Grosvenor)
Draw	21.2%	4.73	3.20 (Betfred (UK))
SS Lazio	43.6%	2.29	2.76 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	42.2%
Under	57.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.6%
No	55.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
0-1	15.2%
1-0	13.6%
1-1	9.8%
1-2	8.3%
0-2	7.6%

Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina

2026-09-11 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Venezia FC	37.4%	2.67	2.75 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	20.9%	4.79	3.50 (Betfred (UK))
ACF Fiorentina	41.7%	2.40	2.60 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	43.8%
Under	56.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.1%
No	53.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
0-1	14.4%
1-0	13.6%
1-1	9.7%
1-2	8.2%
2-1	7.6%

Genoa CFC vs Frosinone Calcio

2026-09-12 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Genoa CFC	19.1%	5.25	1.95 (Sky Bet)
Draw	17.7%	5.66	3.50 (Casumo)
Frosinone Calcio	63.3%	1.58	4.60 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	46.3%
Under	53.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	42.0%
No	58.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 56% of total probability)
0-1	16.7%
0-2	12.2%
1-2	9.5%
1-0	9.0%
1-1	8.1%

SS Lazio vs AC Milan

2026-09-12 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SS Lazio	33.6%	2.98	3.30 (Grosvenor)
Draw	21.1%	4.73	3.30 (Betfred (UK))
AC Milan	45.3%	2.21	2.30 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	41.9%
Under	58.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.2%
No	55.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
0-1	15.6%
1-0	13.3%
1-1	9.7%
1-2	8.5%
0-2	8.0%

Atalanta BC vs Cagliari Calcio

2026-09-12 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Atalanta BC	43.2%	2.32	1.53 (888sport)
Draw	22.4%	4.46	4.20 (Betfred (UK))
Cagliari Calcio	34.4%	2.91	6.75 (Grosvenor)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	37.2%
Under	62.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	40.4%
No	59.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 57% of total probability)
1-0	16.7%
0-1	14.7%
1-1	10.0%
0-0	7.9%
2-1	7.9%

US Lecce vs AC Monza

2026-09-13 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
US Lecce	38.3%	2.61	2.26 (Betfair)
Draw	18.3%	5.48	3.30 (Betfred (UK))
AC Monza	43.5%	2.30	3.45 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	60.7%
Under	39.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	59.9%
No	40.1%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 44% of total probability)
0-1	9.7%
1-0	9.2%
1-2	8.7%
2-1	8.0%
1-1	8.0%

SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909

2026-09-13 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
SSC Napoli	47.1%	2.12	1.73 (Betfair)
Draw	21.1%	4.75	3.75 (Sky Bet)
Bologna FC 1909	31.8%	3.14	5.50 (Betfred (UK))

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	41.7%
Under	58.3%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	43.7%
No	56.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 56% of total probability)
1-0	16.0%
0-1	13.0%
1-1	9.7%
2-1	8.6%
2-0	8.5%

US Sassuolo Calcio vs Juventus FC

2026-09-13 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
US Sassuolo Calcio	25.3%	3.96	5.50 (Casumo)
Draw	18.9%	5.28	4.00 (Betfred (UK))
Juventus FC	55.8%	1.79	1.60 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	47.2%
Under	52.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.1%
No	53.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 54% of total probability)
0-1	15.4%
1-0	10.3%
0-2	10.0%
1-2	9.5%
1-1	8.8%

Como 1907 vs Parma Calcio 1913

2026-09-14 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Como 1907	59.2%	1.69	1.30 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	17.9%	5.58	5.50 (Betway)
Parma Calcio 1913	22.8%	4.38	13.50 (Betfair)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	49.9%
Under	50.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	47.1%
No	52.9%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
1-0	14.9%
2-0	10.5%
2-1	9.8%
0-1	9.3%
1-1	8.4%

Torino FC vs AS Roma

2026-09-14 16:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Torino FC	14.2%	7.05	5.50 (Betfred (UK))
Draw	13.3%	7.54	3.75 (BoyleSports)
AS Roma	72.6%	1.38	1.71 (Casumo)

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.3%
Under	37.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	50.3%
No	49.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
0-1	11.5%
0-2	11.1%
1-2	9.6%
0-3	8.7%
1-3	7.5%

FC Internazionale Milano vs Udinese Calcio

2026-09-14 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
FC Internazionale Milano	48.8%	2.05	—
Draw	18.8%	5.32	—
Udinese Calcio	32.4%	3.09	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	53.8%
Under	46.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	53.6%
No	46.4%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 48% of total probability)
1-0	12.4%
0-1	10.2%
2-1	9.3%
1-1	8.7%
2-0	7.5%

AC Monza vs US Sassuolo Calcio

2026-09-18 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AC Monza	32.9%	3.04	—
Draw	17.7%	5.65	—
US Sassuolo Calcio	49.3%	2.03	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	62.8%
Under	37.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	61.0%
No	39.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 42% of total probability)
0-1	9.7%
1-2	9.2%
1-0	8.1%
1-1	7.6%
2-1	7.2%

Bologna FC 1909 vs Torino FC

2026-09-19 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Bologna FC 1909	38.7%	2.59	—
Draw	20.6%	4.86	—
Torino FC	40.7%	2.45	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	45.3%
Under	54.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	47.4%
No	52.6%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 53% of total probability)
0-1	13.8%
1-0	13.4%
1-1	9.6%
1-2	8.1%
2-1	7.9%

Udinese Calcio vs Cagliari Calcio

2026-09-19 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Udinese Calcio	40.1%	2.49	—
Draw	21.5%	4.65	—
Cagliari Calcio	38.4%	2.61	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	41.2%
Under	58.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.0%
No	56.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
1-0	14.8%
0-1	14.5%
1-1	9.9%
2-1	7.8%
1-2	7.6%

AS Roma vs FC Internazionale Milano

2026-09-19 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AS Roma	48.0%	2.08	—
Draw	18.6%	5.37	—
FC Internazionale Milano	33.4%	3.00	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	55.6%
Under	44.4%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	55.3%
No	44.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 47% of total probability)
1-0	11.7%
0-1	9.9%
2-1	9.2%
1-1	8.5%
1-2	7.3%

Venezia FC vs SS Lazio

2026-09-19 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Venezia FC	24.1%	4.16	—
Draw	20.8%	4.82	—
SS Lazio	55.2%	1.81	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	38.8%
Under	61.2%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	39.0%
No	61.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 59% of total probability)
0-1	18.4%
1-0	11.6%
0-2	11.0%
1-1	9.2%
1-2	8.8%

ACF Fiorentina vs SSC Napoli

2026-09-20 10:30 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
ACF Fiorentina	20.1%	4.98	—
Draw	16.9%	5.90	—
SSC Napoli	63.0%	1.59	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.5%
Under	48.5%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	46.7%
No	53.3%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 52% of total probability)
0-1	14.7%
0-2	11.2%
1-2	9.8%
1-0	8.4%
1-1	7.9%

Frosinone Calcio vs Como 1907

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Frosinone Calcio	31.2%	3.21	—
Draw	19.1%	5.25	—
Como 1907	49.8%	2.01	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	51.3%
Under	48.7%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	51.3%
No	48.7%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 50% of total probability)
0-1	13.2%
1-0	10.6%
1-2	9.3%
1-1	8.9%
0-2	8.0%

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa CFC

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Parma Calcio 1913	41.9%	2.39	—
Draw	22.3%	4.49	—
Genoa CFC	35.8%	2.79	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	37.9%
Under	62.1%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	41.2%
No	58.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 56% of total probability)
1-0	16.2%
0-1	14.8%
1-1	10.0%
2-1	7.8%
0-0	7.6%

Juventus FC vs Atalanta BC

2026-09-20 16:00 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
Juventus FC	41.5%	2.41	—
Draw	21.7%	4.60	—
Atalanta BC	36.8%	2.72	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	40.1%
Under	59.9%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	43.0%
No	57.0%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 55% of total probability)
1-0	15.4%
0-1	14.5%
1-1	9.9%
2-1	7.9%
1-2	7.3%

AC Milan vs US Lecce

2026-09-20 18:45 UTC

Outcome	Model %	Fair odds	Market (informational)
AC Milan	50.3%	1.99	—
Draw	19.2%	5.22	—
US Lecce	30.5%	3.28	—

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over	50.2%
Under	49.8%

Both Teams to Score
Yes	50.2%
No	49.8%

Most likely scorelines (top 5 of 441 possible, 51% of total probability)
1-0	13.7%
0-1	10.7%
2-1	9.3%
1-1	9.0%
2-0	8.3%

These are model-computed probabilities, not betting advice. Backtesting (walk-forward, 2025/26 season) shows this model's predictions are reasonably calibrated and beat a coin-flip baseline on log loss, but do NOT show a validated profitable edge against bookmaker closing lines in any of the 5 leagues tested. The "market" column is shown for informational comparison only.