Value Bets
Generated 2026-07-09 18:00 UTC · reload the page for the latest run
France vs Morocco
| Outcome | Model % | Fair odds | Market | Bookmaker | Edge |
|---|
| Morocco | 22.3% | 4.48 | 7.00 | Smarkets | +56.3% |
| France | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.65 | Smarkets | -7.5% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 4.62 | 3.95 | Smarkets | -14.5% |
Spain vs Belgium
| Outcome | Model % | Fair odds | Market | Bookmaker | Edge |
|---|
| Belgium | 23.5% | 4.25 | 6.00 | Smarkets | +41.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.53 | 4.10 | Smarkets | +16.1% |
| Spain | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.69 | Smarkets | -18.7% |
Norway vs England
| Outcome | Model % | Fair odds | Market | Bookmaker | Edge |
|---|
| Norway | 29.3% | 3.42 | 4.50 | Smarkets | +31.7% |
| England | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.92 | Smarkets | -4.1% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.80 | Smarkets | -21.0% |
Argentina vs Switzerland
| Outcome | Model % | Fair odds | Market | Bookmaker | Edge |
|---|
| Switzerland | 33.7% | 2.97 | 6.20 | Smarkets | +108.8% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.70 | Smarkets | -20.7% |
| Argentina | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.75 | Matchbook | -21.5% |
Model: simple goals-based Poisson, trained on this World Cup only. Small
per-team sample sizes and no adjustment for opponent strength —
treat large edges as a sign the model is crude, not as betting advice.